Yields Pushing Range Boundaries After Tariff Updates and Econ Data

Bonds lost ground over the weekend as news of tariff exclusions fueled a stock rally.  A modest recovery was underway when the S&P Services PMI came out stronger.  From that point on, bonds were on the back foot, ultimately hitting their weakest levels in the afternoon.  Incidentally, this brings 10yr yields right in line with the ceiling of the recent range. Today’s video discusses the implications of a potential range breakout, which can mean different things for different people. 

Econ Data / Events

S&P Services PMI

54.3 vs  50.8 f’cast, 51.0 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:32 AM Moderately weaker over the weekend, but recovering somewhat now.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.5bps at 4.289

09:56 AM Some additional weakness after PMI data.  MBS down nearly a quarter point and 10yr up 6bps at 4.316

02:20 PM 10yr yields are up nearly 8bps at 4.333 and MBS are down nearly 3/8ths after hawkish comments from Fed’s Bostic (but not obviously because of Bostic, necessarily).

03:48 PM Little changed from previous update and flat since then.  MBS down 11 ticks (.34) and 10yr up 7.9bps at 4.334

Wall Street is weighing in on the possible fate of home loan giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, after a fleeting suggestion by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent earlier this week that the government’s stakes could eventually become part of the proposed US sovereign wealth fund.

Effective March 18, the department is retracting eligibility for non-citizens, it announced.

Over 100,000 loans for first-time home buyers have been pooled and securitized in issuances this year, the guarantor of government-backed loans said.

The Federal Reserve governor voted against the decision to slow the pace of balance sheet reduction earlier this week, preferring to allow the current pace of reduction.

These mortgages held by low credit score borrowers, made up 90% of the rise in the number of loans 30 days or more late on payments, ICE Mortgage Tech said.

While ending mandated consumer rights, lenders can still ask for a reconsideration of value on FHA loans; plus, fair lending laws still apply in these cases.

As is the case with a majority of housing and mortgage market data these days, the Existing Home Sales data from NAR is heavily dependent on context. To be sure, the headline is true. You’d have to go back to report that came out in February, 2024 to see a higher annual pace of sales. (NOTE: the table above contains initially-reported numbers.  NAR subsequently revised  the 3/31/24 report up to 4.31m) And if you were to chart these values only, the chart would probably look pretty good for the present month, but it would also belie the situation in the trenches.  Home sales certainly aren’t in freefall in the bigger picture, but they’re generally still sideways at long term lows. Realtors credited an uptick in inventory for the uptick in sales. Additional details are available at NAR’s release page here: https://www.nar.realtor/newsroom/existing-home-sales-accelerated-4-2-in-february

Small Scale Weakness Leaves Bigger Picture Unchanged

Bonds began the day in stronger territory after tracing a risk-off move in the overnight session. Much like yesterday, 9:30am brought a momentum reversal, both for stocks and bonds, thus beginning a slow march back into weaker territory. Bonds might have stayed green if not for tariff headlines at noon ET which resulted in a modest nudge for stock prices and bond yields simultaneously (probably… it was so small that it could easily be seen as noise).  Either way, the bigger picture was completely unaffected.  Bonds are sideways near their strongest levels in months while they wait for guidance from data on the next big move. 

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

223k vs 224k f’cast, 221k prev

Philly Fed Index

12.5 vs 8.5 f’cast, 18.1 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:30 AM Moderately stronger overnight but giving back gains now.  MBS still up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.1bp at 4.23

02:38 PM Lows of the day.  MBS unchanged and 10yr yields up 2.1bps at 4.252

04:40 PM Very flat since last update.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.25

The National Association of Homebuilders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (aka “builder confidence”) hasn’t been in a purgatory of sorts, ever since the big interest rate spike in the 2nd half of 2022.  Builders aren’t nearly as downbeat as they were during the Great Financial Crisis years, but nowhere remotely as confident as the during the post-pandemic highs. The index has now spent more than 2 years muddling sideways in an increasingly narrow range.  The latest reading, reported this week, was worse than economists were expecting, largely due to a bigger decrease in buyer traffic. Even so, the headline confidence level remains in the same consolidation pattern (marked by the arrows in the following chart). Other details from this month’s survey noted by the NAHB:
Builders say tariffs should increase the cost of the typical home by $9200.
Policy uncertainty is contributing to indecision, both on the part of buyers and developers.
29% of builders cut prices in March, up from 26% in February.
The prospect of regulatory relief has helped offset the negative implications from new fiscal policies to some extent.