Bonds Recovering a Bit After “Framework of a Deal” on Greenland

Geopolitics have been front and center for financial markets over the past 2 days with both stocks and bonds taking clear cues from newswires pertaining to tariff brinksmanship, trade deal negotiations, foreign wealth fund participation, and ultimately, the late-day announcement of a “framework of a deal” regarding Greenland. Details are in short supply, but the most important development being a pause on the plan to implement new tariffs on February 1st. Markets are cautiously trading this as a win for now with stocks and bonds at the best levels of the week, but definitely not back in line with last week’s levels. 

Econ Data / Events

MBA Purchase Index (Jan)/16

194.1 vs 184.6 prev

MBA Refi Index (Jan)/16

1580.8 vs 1313.1 prev

Pending Home Sales

71.8 vs 79.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:54 AM choppy, sideways overnight session and little-changed so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.286

01:25 PM reasonably well received 20yr bond auction.  10yr down 3 bps at 4.266 and MBS up an eighth.

02:57 PM Best levels of the day after Greenland-related tariff pause and word of a “deal framework.”  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.25