United Wholesale Mortgage dropped the fees for Title Review and Closing plus to as low as $1,295; it also extended its R/T 90 refi promo for another month.

The first government shutdown since 2019 will slow flood insurance originations and new Small Business Administration loans, though self-funded banking regulators will continue operating as usual.

The Supreme Court said Wednesday that it would defer President Donald Trump’s request for a stay until after oral arguments scheduled for January 2026, allowing Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook to remain on the board at least until then.

The shutdown started with a flight into treasury bonds, putting downward pressure on financing costs, but several other developments slowed mortgage activity.

Best Closing Levels in More Than a Week, But Still Generally Flat

Short version: bonds have been basically flat ever since the 2-day sell-off 2 weeks ago that followed Fed Day and stronger econ data on Thursday the 18th. 
Slightly longer version: Bonds were unchanged at the open after closing at higher levels yesterday. ADP came out much weaker than expected, prompting a rally that was immediate, but appropriately sized for ADP (i.e. nowhere near as big as it would have been for NFP). ISM Manufacturing was in line with expectations, which was good enough to end the bond rally for the day. Yields retraced half the ADP-inspired gains by noon, but rallied modestly in the PM hours to end the day at the lowest levels since last Tuesday.

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment 

-32k vs 50k f’cast
last month revised from 54k to -3k

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Sep)

45.3 vs — f’cast, 43.8 prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep)

49.1 vs 49 f’cast, 48.7 prev

ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Sep)

61.9 vs 63.2 f’cast, 63.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM Stronger after ADP data.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.9bps at 4.109

10:16 AM Minimal reaction to ISM data, but off the best levels.  10yr down 3.5bps at 4.113 (up from 4.09 lows).  MBS still up 5 ticks (.16) but down 3 ticks (.09) from highs.

01:23 PM Back near best levels in MBS, up a quarter point on the day. 10yr down 3.6bps at 4.113

Mortgage rates are based on bonds and bonds take cues from economic data. Employment-related data is particularly important. The monthly jobs report from the Department of Labor is in a league of its own in that regard, and while we won’t get that this week due to the shutdown, this morning brought the release of a similar private sector report.  The ADP Employment report showed the job count dropping by 32k–well short of the forecast for a 50k increase.  In addition, the previous month’s 54k was revised down to -3k. Bonds responded immediately and generally moved back in line with the stronger levels from yesterday morning. As such, mortgage rates were able to start the day right in line with yesterday’s opening levels. The average 30yr fixed rate has been very flat for nearly 2 weeks now. The biggest risk/opportunity for a meaningful change would follow the eventual release of the jobs report, but that date is TBD for now.

Come on… you don’t believe politics and mortgages are separate? Look at politicized government housing agencies: whoever is running HUD, whether it is Bill Pulte or Scott Turner, posted this note on the website. Wasn’t it just a few weeks ago that all we had in the news were tariffs and Fed Governor Lisa Cook? (By the way, all the living Fed Chairs have come out in favor of Federal Reserve independence and against the firing. And mortgage occupancy fraud involving her and President Trump’s cabinet members? Here’s the latest.) Starting today, the shutdown has necessitated a furlough of certain federal employees and significant curtailment of certain operations requiring agency staff intervention or action at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Veterans Affairs, and the Department of Agriculture. National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) authorities have expired today. The MBA continues to advocate for an extension of NFIP’s authority to avoid disruptions to the housing market, including joining other trade groups in a letter to Congressional leadership. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear an interview with Spring EQ’s Reno Heine on when and why loan originators should consider HELOC and HELOAN products for clients, key factors in choosing between them, and the future outlook for second mortgages.)

Bonds were already a hair stronger coming into the ADP data, but the results (-32k vs 50k forecast and previous month revised to -3k from 54k) have provided an obvious tailwind. With the government shutdown now confirmed, this will be the week’s only broad payroll data.  It’s certainly not worth nearly as much of a reaction as the jobs report, but it’s definitely worth something.  

Fidelity National Financial, with support from the American Land Title Association, is suing to halt enforcement of the anti-money laundering regulation.

The massive wholesale lender’s new website stands opposite rival United Wholesale Mortgage’s own originator portal which it launched in 2018.