Mortgage rates are based on bond market movement and bonds are much stronger today compared to Monday. Although bonds were closed yesterday for the Veterans Day holiday, there was an important piece of economic data that suggested lower rates today. The data in question was the new weekly payroll count from ADP. Whereas October’s monthly data (which came out last week) suggested 42k new jobs created, yesterday’s weekly data showed an 11k DECREASE in the payroll count.  Decreases are uncommon outside recessions and recessions tend to push interest rates lower. The average lender moved down to the lowest levels since October 31st, but just barely. The typical correlation between bonds and mortgages suggested a slightly bigger move.

Its dog eat dog in the ranks of the FHFA and Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac. The question is, does anyone care, or is anyone surprised? We want to follow the law, right? Everyone knows that the Trump Administration fired the Inspector General and Fannie’s ethics staff. Now the Wall Street Journal reports that, “Fannie Mae Watchdogs Probed How Pulte Obtained Mortgage Records of Key Democrats… FHFA’s acting inspector general handed probe report to U.S. attorney office that had indicted New York Attorney General Letitia James.” “Fannie Mae watchdogs who were removed from their jobs had been probing if Trump appointee Bill Pulte had improperly obtained mortgage records of key Democratic officials, including New York Attorney General Letitia James, according to people familiar with the matter.” Speaking of Bill Pulte and his staff, recently notable for the 50-year mortgage equation, now President Trump is back tracking on extending loan amortization past QM guidelines. The lack of affordability is a result of many things, and everyone in the industry knows that amortization terms are not high on the list. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by TransUnion. Mortgage lenders choose TransUnion for their identity-focused, data-driven mortgage insights and solutions, enabling them to achieve more desirable lending outcomes in a volatile housing market. Hear an interview with TransUnion’s Satyan Merchant on how credit data is evolving from a static score to a dynamic, predictive asset, and what lenders can do right now to turn this wave of disruption into opportunity.)

ADP has been in the monthly data game for a long time when it comes to payroll counts, but their weekly report is the new kid on the econ data block. The public has only had access for a few weeks and traders have wasted no time incorporating it into the inner circle of influential market movers.  Perhaps this dynamic will fade after the government shutdown ends, but for now, it’s big business (as evidenced by the market reaction in TSY futures during the Tuesday holiday). All of the gains on the screen this morning came courtesy of that data and bonds have been broadly flat since then.

Third-quarter mortgage earnings revealed swings in profitability, but the real story, according to the Chairman of Whalen Global Advisors, is that hedging MSRs is unnecessary for well-managed lenders.

A 50-year mortgage on a median-priced US home could reduce borrower’s monthly repayment, but also double the amount of interest the owner pays over the life of the loan, according to UBS Group AG analysts.

Congressmen introduced the Retroactive Renewal and Reauthorization Act to the House Monday, with hopes to backdate the reauthorization of the insurance program.

Rate-and-term refinances dropped 14% month over month in October, but were still up 143% from last year.

The Department of Justice told a court that the bureau cannot legally request funding from the Federal Reserve System, arguing that the Fed has not turned a profit since 2022 and thus cannot fund the CFPB.

Mortgage credit availability increased 2.3% to 106.8 last month, marking the fourth consecutive month of growth.

All five publicly traded title insurance companies reported a year-over-year increase in earnings during the third quarter, but only two had higher orders.