Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger

Ultra Quiet Session, But Ultimately Stronger

With the day’s only relevant econ data on hold due to the shutdown, bonds didn’t have any objective inspiration. Add the Yom Kippur holiday as well as the absence of tomorrow’s jobs report, and there suddenly seems to be no compelling reason for the bond market to be open for the rest of the week. This was reflected in volume and AM volatility–both were muted. There was modest movement in the afternoon with trading levels moving into slightly stronger territory. This could be viewed as an incidental  byproduct of the shift in buyers/sellers after the European close, or an intentional front-running of what bond bulls hope is a weaker ISM report tomorrow. It doesn’t really matter either way. Bigger, more durable moves are on hold until the jobs report comes out.

Market Movement Recap

09:23 AM Flat overnight with modest selling early.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.4bps at 4.113

12:08 PM Sideway to stronger in MBS, now unchanged on the day.  10yr near best levels, up less than half a bp at 4.102

01:57 PM best levels of the day.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.087

Mortgage Rates Technically Lower, But Effectively Flat

If we’re splitting hairs, today’s mortgage rates are half a hair lower than yesterday’s, but the average borrower might not see a difference in a rate quote. Our 30yr fixed rate index fell by the smallest increment possible (.01%) and it hasn’t been more than 0.03% away from that level for two weeks. With the Federal government closed, today’s only potentially relevant economic data was not reported. It will be the same story tomorrow, which was originally scheduled to host the release of the jobs report. No other report comes close in terms of relevance to rates. Going without it means the market is largely flying blind until it is eventually released. This doesn’t mean rates can’t move between now and then–only that the overall capacity for volatility is lower until the data returns (likely when gov funding resumes). There are non-government reports that matter as well and tomorrow morning brings this week’s best example with ISM’s Services index.

Commercial, Borrower Mining, LOS Tools; FICO’s Direct License Program; Lisa Cook on Hold Until January

We’re two days into the 4th quarter of the 2025, two days into another government shutdown, and… companies are relishing their September numbers. I have been hearing from a few companies that had strong performance in September. For example, Union Home Mortgage has been in the news lately, and the company had a record lock month with over 5,000 units and $1.67 billion over all channels. As we noted here a couple of weeks ago, UHM announced the acquisition of the origination assets of Sierra Pacific, whose lock volume totaled $521 million for the month, so combined that puts UHM with a total of $2.18 billion. (The asset acquisition, led by STRATMOR, became official on October 1st.) Residential lending is always changing, and in The Big Picture, today at noon, PT, Dustin Owen, host of The Loan Officer Podcast, will touch on the potential for Fannie and Freddie re-public offerings, explore how the Trump Administration and FHFA could shift the landscape, and dig into hot-button topics like LO comp, and increasing non-QM production. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Spring EQ, one of the nation’s leading non-bank home equity lenders, giving partners more ways to serve customers. Known for speed, service, and innovation, Spring EQ makes tapping into home equity easier. Hear an interview with AHMC’s Matthew VanFossen on his new role as Chair of State and Local for MBA, key agenda items, and how people can get involved with advocacy.) Services, Products, Software, and Tools for Lenders and Brokers

Data-Free, Thanks to Shutdown

As a reminder, economic data published by government entities is on hold during the shutdown. Today, that means no Jobless Claims (also no Factory Orders, but we don’t care about that report anyway), and thus a random walk for trading momentum, absent any unexpected headline shock. Friday still has ISM Services data, and thus some old fashioned “cause and effect” potential.