In a case mentioned alongside one decided by the U.S. Supreme Court, by 2-1, the judges said they could not overturn a past decision on California’s escrow law.

The loan boarding dataset aims to identify potential problems early during the transaction’s setup to avoid slowdowns after origination is completed.

Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said Friday that the economic outlook is uncertain and that he was adopting a cautious approach to gauging whether slowing growth and a softening labor market outweigh inflation pressures from tariffs.

VantageScore’s claims of outperforming Classic FICO rely on flawed methods and biased comparisons that overstate its impact, according to analysts from AEI Housing Center.

Weaker Day, Stronger Week

Friday ended up seeing the bond market give up some ground with most of the weakness following the ISM Services data. The headline wasn’t the culprit. Rather, resilience in the employment index and persistence in the price index did the damage. Even then, the damage was minimal in the bigger picture and not sufficient to derail what ended up being a stronger week overall.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Biz Activity (Sep)

49.9 vs 51.8 f’cast, 55 prev

ISM N-Mfg PMI (Sep)

50.0 vs 51.7 f’cast, 52.0 prev

ISM Services Employment (Sep)

47.2 vs — f’cast, 46.5 prev

ISM Services New Orders (Sep)

50.4 vs — f’cast, 56.0 prev

ISM Services Prices (Sep)

69.4 vs — f’cast, 69.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:01 AM No major reaction to ISM data.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.101

12:03 PM Off the weakest levels.  MBS down 2 ticks (.06) after being down more than an eighth earlier.  10yr up 2.8bps at 4.109 after hitting 4.117 earlier.

03:34 PM Weakest levels of the day.  10yr yields up 3.8bps at 4.12 and MBS down 6 ticks (.19) on the day. 

Mortgage rates moved just a bit lower today. Relative to any other day in the past 2 weeks, it was unremarkable.  But because the range has been so narrow over that time, and because rates were already at the lower boundary of that range yesterday, it technically resulted in the lowest average rate since Fed Day on September 17th. The underlying bond market was slightly weaker. This would typically result in mortgage rates moving higher. The catch is the timing of the weakness (and yesterday’s strength).  Specifically, bonds improved yesterday afternoon but not enough for the average lender to change its rates for the day. Today’s bond market is weaker compared to yesterday afternoon’s levels, but stronger than yesterday morning’s levels (when a majority of mortgage lenders published rates).  In other words, today’s drop in rates had everything to do with yesterday afternoon’s bond market gains.  All that needed to happen this morning was for bonds not to lose too much of that ground.

The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI)—which tracks contract signings on existing homes—ticked higher in August, but remains locked in the same flat, depressed range that has defined the past two years. Pending home sales rose 4.0% in August, lifting the index to its highest level since March, and 3.8% above the same month last year. That all sounds pretty good, but the chart tells a more sobering story. The overall trend hasn’t changed: contract activity continues to bounce around within a narrow band, showing only modest sensitivity to month-to-month rate shifts (which could also simply be coincidental). Regional Breakdown (Month-Over-Month)
Northeast: −1.1%
Midwest: +8.7%
South: +3.1%
West: +5.0%
Regional YoY Change
Northeast: +2.6%
Midwest: +6.7%
South: +4.2%
West: +0.2%
Three of the four regions posted solid monthly gains, led by the Midwest and West. On a yearly basis, all four regions were slightly positive, with the Midwest again the strongest performer.

Both the FHFA and the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller indices published updated home-price data this week. The message hasn’t changed: prices are still higher than a year ago, but the pace of growth continues to slow. Case-Shiller is now at its weakest year-over-year level in more than 2 years, while FHFA remains stuck near the lowest growth since 2012. The eternal caveat with home price data is that the “lowest in x years” classification doesn’t mean home prices are falling if the percent change is still positive–something that’s still easily the case in annual terms.  Another way to visualize this is with the simple price indices themselves (NOT the percent change). Note: the following chart’s y axis is normalized such that 100 = 100 for both indices (which simply makes it easier to see correlation). The takeaway from this second chart is quite different. Prices remain near all-time highs and have only ebbed slightly in recent months. None of the moderation in prices over the past few years even belongs in the same conversation as the massive correction seen during the great financial crisis. FHFA House Price Index (seasonally adjusted, MoM)
July: −0.2%; June was unrevised at −0.2%
YoY: +2.8% from July 2024 to July 2025
All nine census divisions remained positive YoY, with gains ranging from +0.6% in the Mountain division to +6.5% in the Middle Atlantic. Case-Shiller National Index (unadjusted)

Mortgage application activity dropped sharply last week as higher rates cut into both refinance and purchase demand. According to MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending September 26, total volume fell 12.7% on a seasonally adjusted basis and 13% unadjusted. The Refinance Index decreased 21% from the previous week but remains 16% higher than the same week one year ago. The pullback was broad-based, with double-digit declines across conventional and VA refinancing after rates climbed to three-week highs. Apart from the previous 2 weeks, the index was at the highest levels in more than 3 years. “Mortgage rates increased to their highest level in three weeks as Treasury yields pushed higher on recent, stronger-than-expected economic data. After the burst in refinancing activity over the past month, this reversal in mortgage rates led to a sizeable drop in refinance applications, consistent with our view that refinance opportunities this year will be short-lived,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. Purchase applications edged lower, with the seasonally adjusted index down 1% and the unadjusted index down 2%, though both measures remain 16% stronger than a year ago. The refinance share of mortgage activity decreased to 55.0% of total applications. The adjustable-rate mortgage (ARM) share fell to 8.4%. The FHA share increased to 16.8%, while the VA share declined to 16.2%. Mortgage Rate Summary:

“It’s likely going to be in the thousands,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters on Thursday, saying that the “entire team at the White House” was working to identify possible cuts.