Existing-home sales posted another modest gain in October, rising 1.2% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.10 million , according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR). Sales are now 1.7% higher than a year ago as lower mortgage rates helped offset the drag from the government shutdown. Demand continues to run stronger than it did through most of 2023 and early 2024, even if the overall pace remains historically subdued. “Home sales increased in October even with the government shutdown due to homebuyers taking advantage of lower mortgage rates,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. He highlighted regional differences for first-time buyers: limited supply in the Northeast and high prices in the West kept activity in check, while the Midwest and South benefited from better affordability and more available listings. Yun added that decelerating rents should continue easing inflation and encouraging further Fed rate cuts, which would support additional housing demand. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, October 2025)

Region
Sales (annual rate)
MoM Change
Median Price
YoY Change

Northeast
490k
0.0%
$503,700
+6.5%

Midwest
990k
+5.3%
$319,500
+4.6%

South
1.86m
+0.5%
$362,300
+0.3%

West
760k
-1.3%
$628,500
+0.1%

Mortgage applications moved lower last week as rates continued drifting higher for a third straight week. MBA’s Weekly Applications Survey for the week ending November 14 showed a 5.2% drop in total volume on a seasonally adjusted basis and a 7% decline unadjusted. The Refinance Index fell 7% from the previous week but is still running 125% above last year’s levels. Even with the pullback, refi activity remains firmly in recovery territory compared to the past two years. That said, the recent rate bump pushed the average refinance loan size to its lowest reading since August, underscoring just how sensitive the category remains to even small rate moves. Purchase activity was more stable, slipping 2% seasonally adjusted and 7% unadjusted. Despite the weekly decline, purchase volume is still 26% higher than the same week one year ago—another sign that buyer demand is meaningfully stronger than it was in late 2023 and early 2024. “Mortgage rates increased for the third consecutive week, with the 30-year fixed rate inching higher to its highest level in four weeks at 6.37 percent,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “Application activity over the week was lower, with potential homebuyers moving to the sidelines again, although there was a small increase in FHA purchase applications. Refinance applications decreased as borrowers remain sensitive to even small increases in rates at this level.” The refinance share of applications dipped to 55.4%. ARM share fell to 7.5%, while FHA, VA, and USDA shares all moved slightly higher.

Builder confidence levels are still kicking the same sad little can down the road, just with slightly more enthusiasm. The November National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index (HMI) inched up to 38 from 37 in October, marking the 19th straight month below the 50 line that separates expansion from contraction. Looking at the underlying components, we find the same deck of cards shuffled in a slightly different order. The component for current sales conditions improved two points to 41 and the buyer traffic index ticked up one point to 26—still firmly in “low to very low” territory. The index tracking sales expectations over the next 6 months actually fell three points to 51, which is still modestly positive but not exactly a vote of confidence in a near-term boom. Affordability remains the main villain. Even after pulling back from peak levels, mortgage rates are high enough that a lot of would-be buyers are still on the sidelines. Any sustained move toward lower rates would help unstick that buyer traffic index, but for now, builders are operating in a world where financing costs are still a big constraint. [thirtyyearmortgagerates] Pricing pressure was especially evident in this particular installment. NAHB reports that 41% of builders cut home prices in November, the first time this metric has broken above 40% in the post-Covid era. The average reduction was 6%, and 65% of builders used sales incentives, matching the elevated levels seen in September and October. In other words, builders are still doing a lot of financial gymnastics just to get deals across the finish line.

Non-QM’s rapid rise is reshaping how lenders underwrite and manage risk, setting a model the rest of the industry will follow, writes the founder of Prudent AI.

Federal Reserve Gov. Lisa Cook, citing several studies, outlined her concerns Thursday that generative AI could be used to manipulate markets, and regulators have not yet thought through how to police such activity.

Frank Cassidy, who is currently principal deputy assistant secretary at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, will soon face a full Senate vote.

Even with this week’s increase, mortgage rates have remained within a 13 basis point band since mid-September, with industry pundits saying that’s where they will stay.

The national median payment applied for by purchase applicants fell to $2,039 in October from September, the Mortgage Bankers Association said.

Decent Gains Remain Intact; Stock Market Contribution is a Wild Card

The rescheduled release of the September jobs report played out exactly as we expected in terms of bond market impact. Volumes surged to the highest levels since the late October Fed announcement and bonds managed a clear response in spite of arguably mixed results. That said, the response was still logical given the Fed’s stated preference for the unemployment rate over the payroll count.  One could imagine an even more decisive rally if NFP was low or negative (or if the unemployment rate was another 0.1% higher). The AM rally may have fizzled out by 10:30am if not for another sizeable sell-off in stocks. This is a bit of a wild card going forward (i.e. we have to worry that a big correction in stocks could push yields higher).

Econ Data / Events

Non Farm Payrolls (Sep)

119K vs 50K f’cast, 22K prev

Participation Rate (Sep)

62.4% vs — f’cast, 62.3% prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Nov)

-1.7 vs -3.1 f’cast, -12.8 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Nov)

56.10 vs — f’cast, 49.20 prev

Unemployment rate mm (Sep)

4.4% vs 4.3% f’cast, 4.3% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:34 AM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.121

11:50 AM Best levels of the day with MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.5bps at 4.103

03:10 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 3.3bps at 4.105

Yesterday, we discussed the fact that mortgage rates were heading into Thursday with a disadvantage (for most lenders, anyway). This had to do with the fact that lenders prefer to avoid changing rates in the middle of the day (unless bond market movement is big enough to force their hands) and the fact that bonds had weakened just enough for lenders to begin considering changing rates by the end of the day. In other words, lenders either had to increase rates yesterday afternoon or this morning, all other things being equal. The only thing that would have mitigated that necessity would have been a bond market rally of equal size to yesterday’s losses.  Fortunately, that’s exactly what we saw after this morning’s jobs report. The following chart shows movement in the actual bonds that control mortgage rates.  Bottom line: today’s rates were the same as yesterday’s because the red boxes were at similar levels.