Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change

Incidental Weakness But No Big Picture Change

There were no economic reports on tap today and no obvious market moving headlines during the domestic session. The lighter volume and liquidity made the bond market more susceptible to random sources of inspiration in the overnight session. Political developments in Japan were thus able to have a larger impact than normal and, in this case, that impact was unfavorable for bonds. That said, the selling was ultimately moderate. Larger scale momentum requires an end to the shutdown (thus allowing things like the jobs report to be published).

Econ Data / Events

ISM Biz Activity (Sep)

49.9 vs 51.8 f’cast, 55 prev

ISM N-Mfg PMI (Sep)

50.0 vs 51.7 f’cast, 52.0 prev

ISM Services Employment (Sep)

47.2 vs — f’cast, 46.5 prev

ISM Services New Orders (Sep)

50.4 vs — f’cast, 56.0 prev

ISM Services Prices (Sep)

69.4 vs — f’cast, 69.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:51 AM weaker overnight with a modest recovery early.  MBS down 1 tick (.03) and 10yr up 2.6bps at 4.143

03:03 PM Gradually weaker and now at the weakest levels of the day.  MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.164

Mortgage Rates Start The Week Near Recent Highs

Mortgage rates began the week right in line with their highest levels of the past 30 days.  This sounds a bit more dramatic than it is because the past 2.5 weeks have been very narrow and today’s rates are merely at the upper edge of that range (i.e. not much different than the recent lows). There were no meaningful economic reports driving volatility in the underlying bond market (bonds dictate rates), but overseas developments caused broad bond market weakness overnight.  Weaker bonds = higher rates, all else equal. More extreme rate movement remains on hold until the government shutdown ends, thus allowing the publication of the big-ticket economic reports that have the biggest impacts on rates.

Trading, TPO Training, Verification Tools; Investor Shutdown News; Fifth Third/Comerica Deal

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Overnight Losses Thanks to Overseas Markets

On paper, it was supposed to have been a sleepy session for bonds with nothing of note on the econ calendar. But in practice, we’re seeing one of the larger instances of overnight selling in months. Ironically, the extreme absence of domestic market movers can grease the skids for more volatility (via illiquidity) if unexpected motivations pop up.  That’s arguably the case overnight as political developments in Japan and the EU pushed yields higher in both sessions (but mainly the former).