The 30-year fixed rate mortgage ended the week unchanged as the 10-year Treasury ended Wednesday about 5 basis points higher than seven days before.

The giant lender and servicer which acquired Home Point Capital in 2023 did not say whether it would still pursue damages in the repurchase dispute.

Some Headwinds Ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech

Thursday brought the week’s only relevant econ data with 3 occasional market movers on tap.  Their results were mixed, but the important development was that the inflation components of the Philly Fed and S&P PMI data agreed that price pressures are alive and well. This made for a weaker start during the AM hours and that weakness was exacerbated by comments from Fed’s Hammack (who said current data doesn’t justify a September rate cut). A super strong 30yr TIPS auction at 1pm helped push back just a bit (which is quite remarkable as this essentially never has an impact). In the bigger picture, bonds could still be classified as drifting sideways to slightly weaker in a narrow range. Friday morning’s speech from Fed Chair Powell isn’t guaranteed to cause volatility, but it’s the week’s only true top-tier event in terms of volatility potential.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Aug)/09

1,972K vs 1960K f’cast, 1953K prev

Jobless Claims (Aug)/16

235K vs 225K f’cast, 224K prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Aug)

-0.3 vs 7 f’cast, 15.9 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Aug)

66.80 vs — f’cast, 58.80 prev

S&P Manufacturing PMI

53.3 vs 49.5 f’cast, 49.8 prev

S&P Services PMI

55.4 vs 54.2 f’cast, 55.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:37 AM MBS are now down only 1 tick (.03) and 10yr yields are close to unchanged at 4.296 after being over 4.315 just before the data.

09:03 AM 10yr yields are back up to 4.312 (up 1.8bps on the day) and MBS are down 3 ticks (.09) on the day.

09:52 AM Weakest levels after PMI data.  MBS down an eighth and 10yr up 3.3bps at 4.328

11:22 AM MBS down 5 ticks (.16) on the day 10yr yields up 4.5bps on the day at 4.35. Fed’s Hammack comments are the driver of the most recent weakness

01:11 PM Some resilience after strong 30yr TIPS auction (never have we ever seen a 30yr TIPS auction move the market).  10yr up 3.4bps at 4.329 and MBS down 3 ticks (.09).

In a world (like this one) where mortgage rates are dictated by bond market movement and where bonds take cues from certain economic reports, weeks like this one can be frustrating or boring.  Until today, there haven’t been any actionable economic reports to inspire a bond market reaction. Unfortunately, today’s data was relatively unfriendly for rates, primarily due to inflation implications in two separate reports (Philly Fed Index and S&P PMIs). Bonds also care about comments from Fed speakers and there were headwinds on that front as well with the Fed’s Beth Hammack saying the data don’t currently support a rate cut at the September meeting. On a positive note, the damage to the bond market was minimal in the bigger picture. Thus, the impact on average mortgage rates was also minimal. While it’s true that today’s rates are the highest in nearly 3 weeks and 0.09% higher than the recent lows, it’s also true that, apart from those 3 weeks, these are still the lowest rates since October 2024 and 0.13% lower than July 31st. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

After sliding back in June, existing-home sales picked up in July. The latest update, released August 21, shows a modest rebound. Sales rose 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.01 million are now 0.8% higher than a year ago. As has been and continues to be the case, zooming out on the same chart puts things in the most accurate perspective for the home resale market. Sales levels have hovered near 75% of pre-pandemic norms for three years now. NAR’s Chief Economist Lawrence Yun noted that slightly better affordability and stronger wage growth are giving sales a lift, with buyers also benefiting from more choices in the market. He added that many areas are seeing near-flat price growth, with some regions experiencing outright price declines. Even so, homeowners remain in a strong position, with a cumulative 49% increase in typical home values since mid-2019. Distressed sales remain at historic lows, and inventory has climbed to its highest level since May 2020, offering buyers their best negotiating position in years. Regional Breakdown (Sales and Prices, July 2025)

Region
Sales (annual rate)
MoM Change
Median Price
YoY Change

Northeast
500k
+8.7%
$509,300
+0.8%

Midwest
940k
-1.1%
$333,800
+3.9%

South
1.805m
+2.2%
$367,400
-0.6%

West
720k
+1.4%
$620,700
-1.4%

Today is the only day of the week with any economic reports that are relevant to bond market movement. The results are in, and bonds aren’t thrilled.  Jobless Claims and the Philly Fed headline helped initially.  Yields moved back to unchanged levels after some overnight weakness, but the higher inflation component in Philly Fed was already making for second thoughts before the 9:45am S&P PMI data added fuel to the unfriendly reversal. In addition to Manufacturing PMI surging higher, the bigger story is the reported tariff-driven price increases: “Tariffs were reported as the key driver of further cost increases in August. Companies reported the steepest rise in input prices since May and the second-largest increase since January 2023. The manufacturing cost rise was especially large, being the second-steepest since August 2022, the service sector increase was the second-highest since June 2023.” Bonds moved to their weakest levels of the morning after that data.

Researchers at the Philadelphia Fed, in a 2023 report, examined the prevalence of “fraudulent investors” in the mortgage market. Their data set covered 584,499 loans issued between 2005 and 2017, of which 22,431 were deemed fraudulent.

The Federal Open Market Committee member is the third Democrat the Trump administration has accused of committing occupancy fraud.

The American Land Title Association has created two policy endorsements and updated its best practices to combat seller-impersonation fraud.

The department will seek to make its oft-criticized platform more user-friendly through a contract with Phoenixteam, aligning it to industry-peer standards.