While there are a smattering of Fed speakers on the calendar today, the morning comments are not likely to have an impact. In fact, the average Fed speech is a forgettable event these days as there are only so many ways to say “inflation is still higher than we want, but we’re feeling a bit more nervous about the labor market.” Other than that, it is only the 1pm 10yr Treasury auction and the 2pm Fed Minutes that have any potential relevance as far as calendar events are concerned. Bonds are off to a decent start and volatility has been light in the first hour and a half.

More than 15% of homes that went under contract in August were canceled, as the market heavily favored buyers, a Redfin report found.

The minority homebuilder share of the industry more than doubled after 2007 but lags when compared to the total non-white U.S. population, according to NAHB.

Prolonged funding pressures in US money markets, just as bank reserves held at the Federal Reserve are dwindling, suggest the central bank may be getting closer to ending the unwinding of its massive portfolio of securities.

House Financial Services Committee ranking member Maxine Waters, D-Calif., asked bank regulators to give banks the supervisory clearance to extend lines of credit and modify loan terms for federal employees furloughed after the government shut down last week.

With the new option, unveiled Monday during OpenAI’s annual developers event, a user can look up a three-bedroom home in a specific neighborhood on Zillow, without leaving the ChatGPT app.

Bonds Turn Green After Econ Data and Treasury Auction

Bonds began the day in slightly weaker territory as yields continue to drift inside the narrow post-Fed range. The absence of big-ticket econ data is a key reason for the lack of volatility. But the lower-tier econ data can still move the needle as evidenced by this morning’s NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The survey showed a slight deterioration in attitudes about the labor market. Bonds moved into stronger territory after that and went on to hit the day’s best levels shortly after a well-received 3yr Treasury auction.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Biz Activity (Sep)

49.9 vs 51.8 f’cast, 55 prev

ISM N-Mfg PMI (Sep)

50.0 vs 51.7 f’cast, 52.0 prev

ISM Services Employment (Sep)

47.2 vs — f’cast, 46.5 prev

ISM Services New Orders (Sep)

50.4 vs — f’cast, 56.0 prev

ISM Services Prices (Sep)

69.4 vs — f’cast, 69.2 prev

Market Movement Recap

10:38 AM Modestly weaker overnight, but moving into positive territory now.  MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.4bps at 4.142

11:56 AM Gains continue.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.7bps at 4.121

02:43 PM Temporary gains after strong 3yr auction, but back to pre-auction levels now.  MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.3bps at 4.125

Mortgage rates have been in a very narrow range for nearly 3 weeks with the last major move seen on September 17th and 18th following the Fed rate cut. Paradoxically but not surprisingly, rates actually moved higher after the Fed cut the Fed Funds Rate. Contrary to popular belief, Fed comments and policy changes are not the biggest consideration for rates. That honor goes to big ticket economic data like the jobs report.  Case in point, the rate drop in early September after the jobs report was bigger than the jump in rates following the Fed. Moreover, the post-Fed jump was driven mainly by upbeat economic data the following morning. With the government in shutdown mode, we haven’t had the same sort of heavy-hitting econ data–a fact that largely contributes to the recently narrow range. There was some non-government data today from the NY Fed that showed a weaker view of the jobs market among consumers, thus helping rates hold in line with yesterday’s levels. Before that data, rates were set to open the day slightly higher.

President Trump has recommended that publicly held companies only report earnings every six months instead of every three. Don’t stockholders deserve more timely information to make educated choices, not less? For example, bond market investors who rely on government releases to make decisions seem nearly frozen in their tracks, and the government has only been shut down for about a week. Lenders try to learn things from every source, and in today’s Advisory Angle at 2PM ET, powered by the Chrisman Commentary, STRATMOR’s Garth Graham, Sue Woodard, Will Ayer, and Madison Ayer reveal what the mortgage industry can learn from hospitality, exploring how lenders can systematize service to create borrower experiences that drive clarity, confidence, and lasting loyalty. Speaking of learning things, thank you to everyone who wrote yesterday reminding me that, given the Fifth Third/Comerica news, Comerica Bank exited the warehouse lending business in 2023 during the regional bank liquidity crisis. (Plenty of other banks have stepped in: If you’d like your warehouse services listed in the Marketplace, please send an email for details.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s are sponsored by Truework, the only all-in-one, automated VOIEA platform that helps mortgage providers achieve up to 50 percent cost savings with an industry leading 75 percent completion rate. Today’s features an interview with Truework’s Randy Lightbody on the Fed’s recent rate cut and its impact on borrower behavior, what lenders should watch for, how homebuyers might respond to lower rates, and the critical role of integration and automation in building a more efficient, sustainable path to homeownership.)

10yr yields drifted up toward the 4.20% technical level overnight but buyers showed up at the 8:20am CME open. The initial recovery looks more technical in nature. The subsequent buying brought bonds into positive territory and likely had more to do with the day’s only real econ data: the NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations. The data showed an uptick in unemployment expectations as well as a softening in other labor market metrics. This isn’t normally a market mover, but sensitivity is somewhat higher due to the absence of last week’s jobs report.