This morning’s ADP Employment data was the only potential market mover for bonds, at least as far as scheduled data is concerned.  Despite coming out a bit higher than expected, bonds opted to maintain the rally trend that had been intact since the start of European trading overnight. That resulted in moderate gains at the start of the 9:30am NYSE open, but things changed from there.  Stocks bounced higher and brough bond yields along for the ride.  The net effect is modest weakness, and no major change to the sideways grind in the bigger picture.  Things could change for better or worse this afternoon after the tariff announcement expected at 4pm ET.

Does anyone use the term “elderly” anymore? Websters defines elderly as “anyone past middle age,” “middle age” being 45-64. Prepare for a fight if you call anyone 65 “elderly” especially when places like The Villages exist. That aside, want to help your older clients? Pass along this list of discounts, for various ages, on items like airline tickets, hotels, restaurants, or car rental companies. And a way for companies to increase their revenue is right in front of their noses. Homeowners 62 and older saw their housing wealth decrease by one percent in Q4 2024 to $13.95 trillion, according to the latest quarterly release of the NRMLA/RiskSpan Reverse Mortgage Market Index. Still, roughly $14 trillion, and roughly 10,000 a day are turning 62, or 65, depending on where you look. Does your company have a HECM (reverse) mortgage department? (More below.) (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. Today’s features an Interview with Rate’s Sergio Murer on tips for having a long and successful career in the mortgage industry, as well as tidbits he has learned while riding his bicycle.) Products, Software, and Services for Lenders A&D Mortgage has completed the acquisition of the wholesale and non-delegated correspondent mortgage business from Mr. Cooper (former Flagstar bank)! Being the recognized #1 non-QM lender, A&D has been strengthened with an expanded team, technical solutions and over 35 years of expertise from one of the top experts in Government & Conventional loans. This merger makes A&D Mortgage even more convenient for mortgage professionals, providing a full portfolio of programs with decades of experience and technology behind them.

A Colorado regulator earlier this year revoked the license of the appraiser responsible for the 2021 evaluation at the center of the government’s suit.

The average American must earn almost $117,000 a year in order to afford a median priced property as prices keep rising, a Bankrate analysis found.

The Trump administration is leapfrogging the normal process by taking its fight over a district court injunction blocking efforts to shut down the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to a federal appeals court, according to the CFPB workers’ union.

Baby boomers made up the largest share of home purchasers in 2024, as the percentage of millennial buyers declined, the National Association of Realtors found.

Pacific Residential Mortgage discovered the ransomware incident just weeks after the successful completion of its merger with an Ohio-based lender.

Data Helped, But Wild Cards Remain on Deck

This morning’s economic data wasn’t immediately and obviously worthy of credit for the bond rally that followed, largely because the bond rally that followed was fairly small. Most of the day’s gains were in place beforehand.  The data (lower ISM/employment, job openings, and job quits) helped keep bonds near the stronger end of the day’s range, and thus, the stronger end of the 5 week range. There’s more data on Wednesday, but the biggest wild card may be the long-awaited tariff announcement in the afternoon.

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing

49.0 vs 49.5 f’cast, 50.3 prev
Prices 69.4 vs 65.0 f’cast
Employment 44.7 vs 47.6 prev

Job openings (lower = better for rates)

7.568m vs 7.630m f’cast

Job Quits (lower = better for rates)

3.195m vs 3.266m prev

Market Movement Recap

10:05 AM Stronger overnight and at best levels after 10am data.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 5.1bps at 4.154

12:55 PM Sideways and slightly choppy all morning.  MBS still up 6 ticks  (.19) and 10yr down 4.6bps at 4.161

04:07 PM Still flat.  MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.165.

While interest rates continue operating in a range that is generally flat and narrow over the past 5 weeks, it’s also true that today’s rates are on the lower edge of that range. Because there’s not much of a gap between the highs and the lows, it didn’t take a major move to facilitate today’s little victory, but it is notable that we’ve seen 3 victories in a row now.  In other words, rates have fallen by a modest amount on each of the past 3 business days. To reemphasize the narrowness of the range, we were at the highest levels 4 days ago. Today’s victory wasn’t necessarily a given.  It relied on the bond market’s reaction to today’s economic data.  Bonds drive rates, and econ data can be a key motivation for bonds. Weaker data tends to help bonds improve, thus pushing rates lower.  Several of this morning’s economic reports were slightly weaker than expected. In and of themselves, they may not have helped rates, but with the unified message of economic uncertainty, it was enough to usher rates toward the lower range boundary.

This ain’t no April Fools economic news: not only has Hooters declared bankruptcy, but apparently there is yet another push to have credit unions pay income taxes. “Right now, leaders in Congress are discussing how to fund an extension of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). Some lawmakers are considering a new tax on all credit unions as part of the solution. Credit unions have been tax-exempt since the 1934 Federal Credit Union Act, and will tell you that, “This exemption allows us to return value directly to you through better rates, lower fees, and member-focused service, not to shareholders through increasing stock prices or dividends. A tax on credit unions would put these benefits at risk.” Meanwhile, in IMB Land, in the span of just three weeks Rocket Cos. has thrown around more than $11 billion to buy a world where Americans buy, sell, and finance their homes through… Rocket. Today’s Advisory Angle webcast by the STRATMOR Group focuses on the what every lender should be thinking about given Rocket’s recent corporate moves and how deals are structured. It’s at 2PM ET, 11AM PT. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. Today’s features an interview with Cotality’s (formerly CoreLogic’s) George Gallagher on the latest takeaways from the LA fires as it pertains to housing and insurance, as well as his company’s recent rebrand.)