This week is ending with the average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate at its lowest level since early October, 2024. The only way to be disappointed about that would be to focus on the fact that rates were even lower this morning. Rates fell sharply due to the market’s ongoing reaction to Wednesday’s tariff announcement and especially due to China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs overnight.  Bonds (which dictate rates) were at their strongest levels right at the start of domestic trading, but progressively erased gains.  Why? There are several ways to make a case for Friday’s rate reversal. These include but are not limited to 3 key events:
A reasonably strong jobs report
News that Vietnam would lower tariffs on the U.S. (which acted as a proof of concept suggesting tariffs could end up being less onerous than feared)
Fed Chair Powell expressing renewed concern over the inflationary impact of tariffs as opposed to offering any indication that the Fed would be eager to cut rates in response to economic turmoil
In addition to those actual nuts and bolts, one could also consider that rates quite simply covered a ton of ground this week, relative to their recent tendencies, and it’s not unheard of for traders to circle the wagons on a Friday afternoon (i.e. to push back slightly on the prevailing momentum). Again, the average rate is still as low as it’s been since October. If there’s anything to be less than enthusiastic about, it’s the fact that the nature of this motivation means that volatility remains a distinct risk, for better or worse.

The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) released the latest mortgage application data this week showing a modest 1.6% decrease from the previous week.  A slight uptick in purchase applications was more than offset by a downtick in refi applications, but both remain in solid territory relative to the prevailing range and interest rate environments. Purchase demand is doing especially well in the recent context.  This week’s improvement makes it one of the best 6 weeks in more than a year. The most optimistic way to approach these numbers would be to say that purchase demand looks to have bottomed out in the bigger picture and is now waiting for motivation to bounce back.  When that happens, no one is under much of an illusion that volume would go back to the highs from a few years ago, but even recapturing a fraction of that range would make for a meaningfully more active housing market. Refinance demand, as always, is very closely tied to interest rate volatility. Last week’s rates moved higher and were near the highest levels in more than a month at one point.  As such, it’s no surprise to see a bit of a slide in the refi index. If anything, it’s refreshing to see how resilient the numbers have been. While we are no great fans of predicting the future, there’s a strong possibility that next week’s refi numbers will be noticeably higher.  That’s not hard to imagine given that rates fell to the lowest levels since October by the end of the week. 

Ahead of next week’s MBA Advocacy event in Washington DC, I received this note from an industry vet. “With the continued consolidation into the large non-banks, are you hearing any rumbling about the level of risk building in these less regulated and less capital-intensive entities? If we are likely to face a recession, with rising delinquencies but rising refinances due to lower rates, are we ready for that as an industry? For the most part big banks have reduced their servicing portfolio size, but is the Trump Administration looking to weaken regulation right into a potential crisis?” Good questions for next week in DC. The headlines are certainly dominated by tariff policy, which, along with the impact of tariffs, is out of the hands of the Federal Reserve. Tariffs may, over the long term, help the trade numbers, but what about our budget? U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has warned that the federal government could reach the debt ceiling as soon as May or June, in line with the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate that the Treasury may exhaust its accounting measures by August or September. So, lenders can keep an eye on the impact of that on interest rates and demand for our securities. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s is sponsored by Calque. Calque provides a binding backup offer on your borrower’s departing residence to clear the existing mortgage balance and closing costs in 48 business hours or less. Today’s features an interview with NAF’s Miguel Villegas on how cash borrowers are driving bidding conditions for various metros around the nation.)

Despite today being “jobs report Friday,” and despite the jobs report perennially having the power to cause big volatility for financial markets, overnight developments proved to be far more consequential.  Specifically, China’s announcement of retaliatory tariffs send stocks and bond yields into a swan dive at 6am ET.  The stronger jobs report ended up having very little impact by comparison.  Even now, trade headlines regarding Trump’s call with Vietnam are doing more to move markets than econ data. Bonds are still stronger, but not as strong as they were in the early morning hours. 

Despite the push-back.  Bigger picture still looks good.

Lumber retains protections for now, but construction stocks still fell, and while the initial market reaction lowered rates, there could later be a reversal.

The systematic miscalculations diverted thousands of dollars from people who fell behind on loans, said documents filed in federal court in Brooklyn.

While prices are still rising, an increase in reductions from listing suggests sellers are adjusting to the new reality for home buying this season.

Homebuyers would be able to take advantage of streamlined finance options, folding energy infrastructure costs with their mortgages, the companies said.

The bank said it will appeal the judge’s ruling, which it suggested would have a chilling effect on lenders participating in such government programs.

Big, Early Rally, Then Flat All Day

On any given day in the bond market, Sometimes everything that’s going to happen ends up happening in the morning, thus leaving the rest of the day to drift almost perfectly sideways. Thursday was one of those days. Overseas markets dogpiled on Wednesday afternoon’s tariff reaction, sending stocks ripping lower and bond yields following. By the time US markets began active trading, most of the gains were in for bonds.  MBS, specifically, barely budged from 11:40am through the close.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims

219k vs 225k f’cast, 225k prev

Continued Claims

1.903m vs 1.860m f’cast, 1.847m prev

ISM Services

50.8 vs 53.0 f’cast, 53.5 prev

ISM Employment

46.2 vs 53.9 prev

ISM Prices

60.9 vs 62.6 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:35 AM Stronger overnight as tariff rally extends.  MBS up a quarter point and 10yr down 8bps at 4.044

01:01 PM Sideways near highs.  MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 01yr down 7.5bps at 4.048

04:17 PM Still sideways!  MBS up 10 ticks (.31) and 10yr down 8.3bps at 4.041