Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

Ceasefire Uncertainty Adds to Losses

Bonds were just a bit weaker this morning after the weekly ADP data. Just before 11am ET, several newswires called ceasefire negotiations into question. Chief among these was a report that Iran had not confirmed its intent to participate. Despite the seemingly significant consequences, bonds only rose about 2bps in terms of 10yr yields. By the 3pm CME close, yields were up less than 4bps on the day and still well inside the prevailing consolidation range. There’s been a bit more weakness since then owing to new headlines indicating that neither Iran nor JD Vance are attending Wednesday’s planned talks in Pakistan. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment Change Weekly

54.75K vs — f’cast, 39K prev

Retail Sales (Mar)

1.7% vs 1.4% f’cast, 0.6% prev

Retail Sales Control Group MoM (Mar)

0.7% vs 0.2% f’cast, 0.5% prev

Pending Home Sales (Mar)

1.5% vs 0.1% f’cast, 1.8% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:32 AM Modestly weaker after weekly ADP data. No reaction to Retail Sales. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.9bps at 4.268

09:44 AM 10yr up 2.4bps at 4.275.  MBS down 5 ticks (.16).

10:51 AM MBS down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.6bps at 4.296

02:44 PM Sideways since previous update. MBS still down a quarter point and 10yr up 4.4bps at 4.295

Highest Rates in a Week But There’s a Catch

Technically and officially, today’s average top tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is the highest since last Monday. The catch is that there hasn’t been much movement since then with the overall range being limited to 0.04%.  Today’s jump was the largest upward movement during that time. There was some upward pressure on rates from stronger employment data in the morning, but the market was even more focused on the uncertain status of US/Iran peace talks.  As the domestic business day winds down, it doesn’t look like there will be concrete news on a ceasefire extension. As such, volatility potential remains elevated heading into Wednesday.

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Barely Weaker After Weekly ADP Data (Not Retail Sales)

Heading into the day, the 8:30am Retail Sales data was the obvious pick among the available economic reports to be a potential market mover. Reality had other ideas… weird ones. After months and months without any major reaction, this morning’s weekly ADP employment finally made its presence felt, even if only by the smallest of margins. Retail Sales definitely garnered a higher volume reaction, but it was balanced between buyers and sellers whereas ADP actually caused a small directional move. Fortunately, it’s so small that we’ve already talked about it too much. Bonds are essentially flat and the rest of the day now becomes about the familiar task of sitting and waiting for any interesting war-related developments.