The latest generation of anti-money-laundering software uses agentic AI to help alleviate AML alert fatigue. Experts say this use of the technology is promising, though they offer some caveats.

Bonds Recover on Oil Price Hopes

Bonds were weaker to start the day with oil prices moving sharply higher after last night’s Trump speech. But a few hours into the trading session, the move was completely erased and reversed after some fairly simple headlines regarding Iran/Oman working on a resolution to open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s speech and the Iran/Oman news may as well have been the only two things that happened today because those were the only moments with any serious market movement. The jobs report is on deck for tomorrow’s holiday-shortened trading session.

Econ Data / Events

Challenger layoffs (Mar)

60.62K vs — f’cast, 48.307K prev

Continued Claims (Mar)/21

1,841K vs 1840K f’cast, 1819K prev

Jobless Claims (Mar)/28

202K vs 212K f’cast, 210K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:38 AM Weaker overnight after Trump speech and flat-ish since then.  10yr up 3.3bps at 4.35 and MBS down 7 ticks (.22).

10:28 AM Stronger after 9:30am NYSE open. MBS back to unchanged and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.302

10:41 AM Additional gains after headline on Hormuz reopening headlines.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.295

02:40 PM Super flat all afternoon.  MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1bp at 4.309

Calyx Path’s integration with Friday Harbor clears paperwork for underwriters, while Dark Matter’s Ask Aiva quick verifiable answers to LO questions.

Nearly 18 million homeowners in the 100 largest U.S. metros paid HOA or condo fees in 2024, with 2.6 million paying $500 or more monthly, according to a new LendingTree report.

The Department of Justice is seeking court approval to immediately fire more than 600 employees, slashing the CFPB’s workforce by 53%.

The artificial intelligence-based technology automates manual processes associated with the financing, including draws, for homes under construction.

The lender claims an originator ambushed executives in a negotiation with the confidential company financials and claimed to have shared them with competitors.

Surprisingly Light Volatility

Bonds digested several big ticket economic reports as well as a host of war-related headlines that probably would have caused a much bigger reaction a few weeks ago. But the net effect was an almost perfectly flat day by the 3pm CME close. If anything, the data caused some weakness and we can say bonds would have rallied more noticeably otherwise. The weak response is no surprise considering all 3 reports were stronger than expected. This also serves as a reminder that Friday’s jobs report is still a relevant market mover despite a general focus on the war and energy prices. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

62k vs 40k f’cast, 63k prev

Retail Sales

0.6 vs 0.5 f’cast, -0.2 prev

Core Retail Sales

0.5 vs 0.3 f’cast, 0.2 prev

ISM Manufacturing

52.7 vs 52.5 f’cast

ISM Prices Paid

78.3 vs 73.0 f’cast, 70.5 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:24 AM slightly stronger overnight with a bit of selling after ADP. MBS still up an eighth and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.301

08:38 AM Giving up gains after Retail Sales. MBS unchanged and 10yr up half a bp at 4.317

11:04 AM Recovering some ground now. No particular reason. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 1.2bps at 4.301

01:43 PM MBS up about an eighth and 10yr roughly unchanged at 4.313

03:23 PM MBS up only 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up 1.6bps at 4.33

The increase in 10-year yields this month has had the effect of arresting what had been an encouraging decline in US mortgage rates for lenders.

While San Francisco had the biggest improvement in affordability for prices today versus 2019, Hartford remains in a very deep freeze, First American said.