Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.

Gradual Selling Leaves Bonds Only Slightly Stronger.

With both sides signing the peace memo, the market was immediately willing to react in the overnight session, but that reaction fell short of what we might expect for an official peace deal. This is a bond market problem more than an Iran war problem. Case in point, oil prices stayed flat after their big overnight drop.  Stocks added to strong overnight gains. Bonds were the odd man out. Part of the reason is that bonds did more than stocks to get in position for this eventuality last week. As of today, both the S&P and 10yr are close enough to the best recent levels to say the overall market reaction has been fairly even keeled. We’d also expect more bullishness among bond traders when the deal is officially official (possibly after Friday’s scheduled meeting in Switzerland). Finally, bonds could be holding back a bit to see how Wednesday’s Fed announcement goes. 

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing (Jun)

5.70 vs 14 f’cast, 19.60 prev

Industrial Production (May)

0.1% vs 0.3% f’cast, 0.7% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:49 AM Nice rally overnight on confirmation of U.S./Iran peace deal with scheduled signing. MBS up nearly a quarter point and 10yr down 3.3 bps at 4.452

12:35 PM MBS still up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 2.4bps at 4.461

03:21 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 2.2bps at 4.463

Mortgage Rates Hit One-Month Lows

The bad news: mortgage rates didn’t fall quite as much as one might have expected following the confirmation of the Iran peace deal. The good news: rates had already begun pricing in the peace deal last Thursday and it only took a modest improvement for the average lender to match the lowest level in exactly one month.  For context, today’s MND rate index of 6.56% is the same as the most recent low seen on May 29th. Before that, you’d have to go back to 5/15 to see anything lower. For even more context, prior to 5/15, today’s rates would have been the 3rd highest since August 1st, 2025.  In other words, we are in solid shape in the context of the last month, but still in an elevated range.  [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

Verification, MGIC Survey, Rocket Contest, Credit Reporting Tools; Agency Program Changes

This morning, I head to Honolulu for the MBA Hawai’i annual conference. The “Pineapple State” is known for banks and credit unions dominating residential lending. Robber Willie Sutton is famously quoted as saying, “I rob banks because that’s where the money is.” Large, unexpected moves in money make the headlines, and Saturday’s Commentary highlighted the collapse of a condominium property management company. Another headline is making the rounds where $17 million in escrow funds disappeared overnight: a Palm Beach law firm sued a bank over a cyber-attack. Ginnie Mae has gained a recent reputation for ratcheting up its cyber security. While companies are focused on security, MLOs have their eye on trends and demographics, and National MI’s Spring 2026 Economic Market Snapshot has its 2026 rate outlook coming in at 6 percent and higher on average, is seeing nearly half of buyers ages 45–59 put less than 20 percent down (leveraging cash or betting on market appreciation?) and first-time buyer activity that rose during February’s rate dip. Yup, don’t bet your career on 30-year mortgage rates in the 5’s. See the full Economic Market Snapshot. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Truework, the one verification solution to replace in-house waterfalls. Verify any borrower with a VOIE solution that automates the entire process to quickly deliver the most accurate and complete reports with broad GSE coverage. After a period largely out of the public spotlight, Ally Carty returns to the industry conversation to discuss her transition from Guild Mortgage to SoFi and what she learned from stepping back. She reflects on burnout, the pressures of building a personal brand, and why authenticity – not algorithms – remains the foundation of effective content and leadership.)

Near Best Levels in a Month as Peace Deal Materializes

Although at least one article (from BBC) suggested a peace deal had been signed on Friday, the real word appears to be that a signing is scheduled for Friday. That fact, along with comments on a “done deal” from both sides, helped bonds rally sharply in overnight trading. 10yr yields dropped roughly 6bps and have corrected gradually since then. Yields remain nearly 4bps lower and MBS are starting out nearly a quarter point higher.