Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data

Ultimately Underwhelming Despite Seemingly Significant Data

There was certainly the potential for volatility today with the confluence of ADP, ISM, and Job Openings data. But the results ended up being close enough to consensus to obviate any massive reactions. Yields hit their lowest levels in a week after ADP came in slightly softer, but most of the rally was already in place from the overnight session. Stronger ISM and job openings pushed bonds back in the other direction, but not enough to result in bond market losses or negative reprices. 

Econ Data / Events

ADP Employment

41k vs 47k f’cast, -32k prev

ISM N-Mfg PMI (Dec)

54.4 vs 52.3 f’cast, 52.6 prev

ISM Services Employment (Dec)

52.0 vs — f’cast, 48.9 prev

ISM Services New Orders (Dec)

57.9 vs — f’cast, 52.9 prev

ISM Services Prices (Dec)

64.3 vs — f’cast, 65.4 prev

USA JOLTS Job Openings (Nov)

7.146M vs 7.60M f’cast, 7.670M prev

Market Movement Recap

08:17 AM Steadily stronger overnight and slightly stronger after ADP.  MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.123

10:02 AM Losing ground after 10am data. MBS back to unchanged and 10yr down 1.3bps at 4.152

12:06 PM Recovering a bit into mid-day. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.138

04:42 PM Off the strongest levels, but still in stronger territory. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.6bps at 4.149

Another 2-Month Low For Mortgage Rates After Modest Drop

Wednesday had the potential to cause bigger volatility for rates due to the confluence of several important economic reports. If that data had been lopsided in one direction or the other, rates likely would have moved more. As it happened, the data was mixed. The net effect was an exceedingly modest drop in the average 30yr fixed rate. Despite the tiny move, this brings MND’s 30yr fixed rate index back in line with the 2-month lows seen on several recent occasions. Bottom line: today ended up being uneventful in an inoffensive way.  From here, Friday’s jobs report represents the same sort of potential for a volatile reaction.

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Stronger Start Thanks to Europe and ADP

Bonds rallied steadily overnight with more of the gains aligning with a data-driven bond rally in Europe. The overnight move brought 10yr yields roughly 2bps lower from yesterday’s close.  Another 2bps of improvement followed this morning’s ADP employment data. ADP’s job count wasn’t particularly far below forecasts (41k vs 47k), but the previous month wasn’t revised much higher (-29k vs -32k initially). At 10am ET, we’ll get Job Openings and ISM Non-Manufacturing–a combo that is arguably heavier hitting than ADP, if the results are not right in line with forecasts.