Knock Knock Knockin’ on 10yr Floor

Knock Knock Knockin’ on 10yr Floor

Sometimes, it’s a shame that the 7yr Treasury isn’t the most popular bond market benchmark. If it were, today’s headline could reference “knockin’ on 7’s floor.” Whether it’s the 3.77 level in the 7yr Treasury yield or 4.0% in the 10yr, bonds are repeatedly approaching these “floor” levels over the past 2 weeks and today’s installment was the best yet–even if only barely.  Yet again, there’s not much for the bond market to hang its hat on in terms of motivations this week if not for the general stock market malaise. Apart from that, one would have to venture a guess that bond traders are discounting economic fallout from trade/geopolitical uncertainty, but there’s no objective way to measure those vibes in the short term. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Feb)/14

1,833K vs 1860K f’cast, 1869K prev

Jobless Claims (Feb)/21

212K vs 215K f’cast, 206K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:36 AM Choppy and sideways overnight, but in a narrow range. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 0.7bps at 4.039

01:10 PM MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.019

02:21 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 2.1bps at 4.024

03:52 PM best levels of the day with MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.01

Best Week For Mortgage Rates in Years

Given that we have the somewhat unpopular job of reporting that today’s average top-tier 30yr fixed mortgage rate is 6.00 again, rather than the 5.99 seen earlier this week, we can at least find one glowingly positive development as a silver lining. In fact, the silver lining is more than a consolation prize. It’s actually better news than another day at 5.99% would have been.  First off, there’s no functional difference between 6.00 and 5.99 when it comes to our daily rate index. A vast majority (95%+) of borrowers would see the exact same rate quotes on either day. As such, it’s far better news that the daily average has been 5.995 over the past 4 days (2 days at 6.00 and 2 at 5.99). That’s easily the lowest weekly average in more than 3 years, and the stability means that more borrowers are able to hear that news and act accordingly.  NOTE: if you happen to see separate news today regarding rates hitting 5.98%, that would be coverage of Freddie Mac’s weekly survey. You can use the chart below to explore long-term comparisons between our daily average, Freddie Mac, and MBA. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

MBS Optimization, Non-Del Non-QM, Fraud, Realtor Tools; STRATMOR on Momentum; Jamie Dimon, AI, and Markets

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Back to The Stronger End of The Range

This is the problem with narrow trading ranges. Yesterday, yields were safely inside a narrow range near long-term lows. Today, they’re challenging the lowest levels since November. Any time we’re at the best levels in months, it’s normal to want to know why, but because of the narrow range, there isn’t really a new “why” for today’s share of the move. After all, 10yr yields are down less than 3bps, which is a below average move in the big picture. We can’t blame data as there isn’t a compelling option there. If we’re still desperate for a scapegoat, it may not be perfect, but there is enough correlation with the stock market’s struggle to make new highs that we can at least consider it.
Today’s chart shows how stocks have slipped from all-time highs and how bonds have benefited with every instance of significant slippage.

The 2nd chart is just for bigger picture perspective.