Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week

Perfectly Acceptable Conclusion to a Potentially Volatile Week

With markets closed for the Juneteenth holiday on Friday, Thursday marked the end of the trading week. Considering the sell-off on Wednesday afternoon, the week had the potential to end on an uncomfortably volatile note. Instead, bonds pushed back nicely in the other direction–even though MBS didn’t recoup as much of their losses as 10yr Treasuries. True, there is some sense of foreboding in the inability of 10yr yields to move below 4.42%, but all told, the week was actually surprisingly calm after factoring in Thursday’s gains.

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (Jun)/06

1,810K vs 1800K f’cast, 1795K prev

Jobless Claims (Jun)/13

226K vs 225K f’cast, 229K prev

Philly Fed Business Index (Jun)

10.3 vs 10 f’cast, -0.4 prev

Philly Fed Prices Paid (Jun)

53.20 vs — f’cast, 47.90 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:55 AM Bonds recover much of post-Fed sell-ff overnight, but mostly in the long end. 2yr yields lost more ground. 10yr yields are down 5bps at 4.446.  MBS are up just under a quarter point.

10:24 AM MBS up 9 ticks (.28) and 10yr down 6.3bps at 4.434

03:02 PM MBS up 5 ticks (.16) and 10yr down 4.2bps at 4.454

Mortgage Rates Stage Decent Recovery of Post-Fed Losses

Mortgage rates spiked yesterday after the Fed announcement. The primary driver was the Fed’s revised outlook for potential rate hikes later this year. Because the Fed Funds Rate governs ultra-short-term transactions (24hrs or less), it has the biggest impact on the shortest-term debt and a diminishing impact on longer term debt. While the typical mortgage may be ABLE to last for 30 years, in practice, the average mortgage length (due to refinances and sales) is a moving target assumed to be around 5 years. That’s helping us today.  Shorter-term debt is still having some indigestion over Fed day, but longer-term debt has recovered more of yesterday’s losses. Top tier 30yr fixed rates are about halfway back to yesterday’s pre-Fed levels for the average mortgage lender and in the lower-middle of the range seen since mid-May.