Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage

Modest Gains Maintained After Intraday Slippage

Slippage is a bit less severe than leakage. Neither of them will turn a green day red, but they both erode morning gains. Today’s gains primarily followed a pre-market comment from Trump who said the US was in the middle of final negotiations to end the Iran war. Bonds hit their best levels shortly thereafter and then the slippage set in. The backtracking was more evident in Treasuries with the 10yr losing almost half of the day-over-day gains. MBS managed to hold firmer, and were still broadly in line with the middle of the AM range by 4pm. Friday brings the jobs report. While it hasn’t been as big of a flashpoint recently, we’d never rule out a reaction in the event of a big beat/miss.

Econ Data / Events

Jobless Claims (May)/30

225K vs 213K f’cast, 215K prev

Market Movement Recap

08:42 AM Decently stronger overnight and no drama so far. MBS up 7 ticks (.22) and 10yr down 4.1bps at 4.455

11:34 AM Sideways so far and just a hair weaker.  MBS still up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.1bps at 4.465

03:31 PM Treasuries near weakest levels but 10yr still down 2.5bps at 4.471. MBS still up 6 ticks (.19).

Mortgage Rates Lower Today, But in a Narrow Range

After hitting long-term highs on May 19th, mortgage rates dropped somewhat quickly by May 26th. Ever since then, they’ve been moving back and forth in a very narrow range. Today’s movement happened to be the good kind with the average lender cutting top-tier 30yr fixed rates by 0.03%. As always, keep in mind that mortgages are most commonly offered in 0.125% increments. When our daily rate index changes by only 0.03%, it’s because we are also measuring the underlying costs associated with any given rate and extrapolating the relative impact on interest rates. To use a crude example, let’s consider two different hypothetical rate quote options yesterday and today.
Yesterday

6.625% at a cost of $12 upfront
6.50% at a cost of $24 upfront

Today

6.625% at a cost of $9 upfront
6.50% at a cost of $21 upfront

Now pretend you only have $15 to spend for closing costs. You still can’t afford to buy your rate down to 6.5%, and you’ll still be choosing the 6.625% quote. But while the interest rate portion of your quote didn’t change, the actual interest cost improved.  Our index captures and expresses these improvements in a single number. 

Non-QM, Credit, MERS, Realtor Lead Tools; Section 8 and RESPA Change? loanDepot Case Developments

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Losses Erased After Another Peace Teaser

The following newswire hit about an hour before the open: TRUMP: US IN THE MIDDLE OF FINAL NEGOTIATIONS TO END IRAN WAR.  Bond yields and oil prices had already fallen modestly up to that point, but more than doubled the overnight rally after that. Yields are thus starting the day roughly 4bps lower, perfectly erasing the entirety of Wednesday’s losses. Jobless Claims had no impact at 8:30am ET. An hour earlier, Challenger Layoffs possibly moved the needle microscopically, but it’s just as likely that the ongoing drop in oil prices did the trick. There’s no other big ticket data for the day, so we’re headline watching and waiting for Friday’s jobs report.