Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration

Mostly Sideways and Lacking Inspiration

Tuesday may as well have been a holiday. Volumes were among the lowest for any day in weeks and the lowest for a Tuesday in several months. The economic calendar was effectively empty and news/headlines had no discernible impact. There was token improvement in the AM hours but that merely served to keep yields in an increasingly narrow consolidation pattern that’s been underway for over a month.

Market Movement Recap

08:38 AM MBS up roughly an eighth of a point and 10yr down 2.6bps at 4.486. Heavy selling in stocks may be helping

11:50 AM MBS up 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr down 3.4bps at 4.478

02:35 PM Off best levels. MBS up 3 ticks (.09) and 10yr down 1.9bps at 4.493

Rates Hold Mostly Steady Despite Bond Market Improvement

Mortgage rates may be based directly on the bond market, but the two don’t always move in perfect lock-step. Today was a good example of that. Bonds improved enough for rates to move modestly lower according to typical correlation. Instead, the average mortgage lender improved by the smallest possible amount that we register on our daily rate index. When this happens, it’s often able to be explained by the timing of intraday volatility in the bond market and that’s generally the case this time around.  Simply put, yesterday morning’s best levels lined up with this morning’s weakest levels even though the bulk of today’s trading took place in moderately stronger territory. There was no major intraday volatility tied to any news headlines or economic reports. Tomorrow is also fairly quiet on the scheduled data front, but the calendar heats up a bit on Thursday morning. 

HELOC, Verification Products; AI Gap; Housing Bill Advances; JPMorganChase on Affordability

Yesterday I published a link to Pennymac Policy Pulse, a newsletter tracking key federal policy developments shaping the housing market and broader U.S. economy. The link went to an old version; above is the link to the most current. (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Equifax, a global data, analytics, and technology company, helps mortgage lenders gain the borrower and market insights they need to improve efficiency and make accurate decisions. Access differentiated consumer credit data, powerful consumer and market insights, and income and employment data from The Work Number. Today’s has an interview with HELIX’s Carl Markman and Frank Perugini on improving borrower and loan officer experiences, accelerating loan processing, and growth in some of the fastest-expanding segments of the mortgage industry.) Broker and Correspondent Credit and Verification Products For decades, credit scoring was treated as a fixed input. Today, lenders have an opportunity to think differently. With score choice advancing and modern models leveraging trended data, mortgage risk assessment is moving beyond static snapshots toward a more predictive view of borrower behavior. TransUnion® is focused on helping lenders prepare for this evolution responsibly, through trusted data, advanced analytics and scalable, API‑driven solutions that integrate into existing workflows. Learn more about what this shift means for cost, competition and decisioning.

Re-Coupling and Range Consolidation

Yesterday’s most interesting development was the visible decoupling of bond yields with oil prices. To a lesser extent, one could also lament that mid-morning stock selling failed to benefit bonds, but that’s far from a regular correlation these days. In fact, the stock/bond correlation is often reversed when the market is adjusting Fed rate expectations. Today’s trading session has seen some re-coupling with yields/oil/stocks all falling together. Some of the bond-specific weakness could have been driven by the official launch of SpaceX’s big corporate bond, and there’s been a heavy slate of corporate issuance in June so far in general.
We can also expect random tradeflows in multiple market sectors simply due to it being late June and money managers being required to buy/sell in order to rebalance portfolios to account for recent market movement. Despite all of the above, bonds are trading in a boring consolidation pattern with this morning’s little rally adhering to a descending ceiling.