Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend

Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend

Bonds/oil/stocks saw a small corrective bounce over the weekend after headlines called the peace process into question, but markets agree we’re close enough to “on track” to avoid a major correction. Over the course of the day, bonds returned all the way to ‘unchanged’ even as oil prices stayed elevated vs Friday’s close. It’s hard to conceive that any counterparties in the war have the economic will to re-escalate at this point. Still, we don’t know if the present 2 week ceasefire will give way to another ceasefire or something more concrete. The nature of that next step could determine the extent of the market’s reaction. If economic data has any chance of moving the needle this week, Tuesday morning is when we’d find out (via Retail Sales for March). 

Market Movement Recap

08:51 AM Bonds only modestly weaker despite initial overnight jump in yields. 10yr up 1.5bps at 4.262 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

11:27 AM MBS down nearly an eighth and 10yr up 1bp at 4.255

03:10 PM 10yr unchanged at 4.248 and MBS down 2 ticks (.06).

Mortgage Rates Almost Perfectly Flat to Start New Week

Despite some initial signs of volatility in financial markets over the weekend, the bond market managed to avoid losing much ground. Because bonds dictate mortgage rate movement, the average lender remained very close to Friday’s latest levels.  MND’s rate index (a measure of top-tier 30yr fixed rates) rose by 0.01% which is the smallest increment we measure. Since April 14th, the index has held inside a narrow range of 0.03% with the bottom of that range representing the lowest rate in over a month. Volatility is a bigger risk over the next 2 days as the 2 week Iran war ceasefire expires. The market is generally positioned for further de-escalation, but there’s more room for improvement if the war officially ends and Hormuz fully reopens. Conversely, if there’s unexpected escalation in the next 48 hours, rates could also move back up.

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War in the Middle East made oil prices go up, higher oil prices hurt world economies and stock markets because prices and inflation go up, and higher inflation leads to higher interest rates. At least, that’s the way it usually works, as does the opposite. Last week stock markets surged as pivotal geopolitical development reshaped investor sentiment: The announced reopening of the Strait of Hormuz marked a major step toward de-escalation in the Middle East, with ongoing negotiations fueling optimism that a broader resolution may be closer than previously expected. Oil prices plunged roughly 14 percent intraday, briefly nearing $80 per barrel, down sharply from nearly $120 just ten days ago at peak tensions. But that was then, and this is now. And who knows what will happen next? (Today’s podcast can be found here and this week’s ‘casts are sponsored by Experian. From lead generation to closing and beyond, Experian empowers mortgage professionals with advanced data, credit insights, and decisioning tools to grow pipelines, manage risk, and stay compliant in a rapidly changing market. Hear an interview with Noise Media Group’s Joe Levi on how marketers are turning SEO budgets into generative engine optimization (GEO) to maintain visibility across AI-driven results that pull from diverse sources like structured data, news, and social content.) Wholesale and Correspondent Product and Corporate News NFTYDoor, an end-to-end digital HELOC software platform, today announced it is now operating as a fully independent company, enabling direct partnerships with wholesale brokers and private label correspondents, alongside a significant expansion of credit parameters and partner economics. Key enhancements include minimum FICO reduced from 640 to 600, maximum CLTV increased from 80 to 90 percent, maximum loan amount increased from $500,000 to $750,000, borrower rates reduced by 100+ bps, increased compensation for brokers and private label partners, and a fully embedded, no-cost warehouse line for private label partners. Access to NFTYDoor’s enhanced end-to-end HELOC origination solution is available exclusively to partners contracting directly with NFTYDoor. Contact hello@nftydoor.com.

Bonds Only Modestly Weaker After New Escalation Over The Weekend

Heading into the weekend, all indications were about as promising as they have been that the war was heading toward a peaceful conclusion. This was reflected in oil prices and Treasury yields being at multi-week lows (and stocks at all-time highs). But over the weekend, the U.S. fired on and seized an Iranian ship, and Iran said it was cancelling plans to re-open the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices retraced almost all of Friday’s drop on the news and bonds erased more than half of the associated gains. But both began bouncing back slowly in overnight trading. Bonds are now moving back into positive territory on recent headlines that suggest peace talks are back on.