Remote work helped fuel migration and erased the loss of rural residents that occurred in the decade prior to the arrival of Covid, Harvard researchers found.

The threshold regards loans where the annual percentage rate is at least 1.5 percentage points higher than the average prime offer rate on first liens.

The home purchase market, which competes for consumers with rentals, should remain subdued in 2026 because of high mortgage rates and low affordability.

Federal Reserve Gov. Stephen Miran said higher goods prices could be the trade-off for bolstering national security and addressing geo-economic risks.

Rising labor and material costs could weigh on final expenses, despite a slower summer for hurricane and tornado claims, according to Verisk.

Fairly Calm Monday. Jobs Report on Deck

Monday ended up being a forgettable December trading day with modest overnight gains eroding to roughly unchanged levels by the 3pm close. There were no catalysts worth discussing, and even if there were, they’d pale in comparison to the inbound econ data. Tuesday morning brings the first post-shutdown jobs report, albeit a week and a half later than normal. With payrolls counts not carrying as much weight as they used to, don’t be surprised to see an increased focus on the unemployment rate. While some of the full-fledged reaction could be held back until traders get Thursday’s CPI data, the jobs report nonetheless could be the heaviest hitting report we’ve seen in several months. Then again, its ability to cause volume/volatility are heavily dependent on how far it falls from forecasts.

Econ Data / Events

NY Fed Manufacturing

-3.9 vs 10.0 f’cast, 18.7 prev

Market Movement Recap

09:27 AM Modestly stronger overnight and holding gains so far. MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.4bps at 4.167

11:43 AM Back near unchanged levels. MBS up 1 tick (.03) and 10yr down 0.3bps at 4.177

02:08 PM 10yr up 0.1bps at 4.18 and MBS up 1 tick (.03).

Mortgage rates were just slightly lower to start the new week. This leaves the average lender’s top tier 30yr fixed rate almost dead center in the narrow range that’s been intact since early September. The absence of any significant movement on Monday is a logical outcome given the absence of any major economic data releases or headlines. But Tuesday could be a different story. At 8:30am ET, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the first jobs report with data collected after the government shutdown. This report normally would have come out on December 5th, but by the time the government reopened on Nov 13th, BLS had missed much of its normal data collection/processing window. The jobs report (officially, The Employment Situation) is the single most important piece of economic data as far as interest rates are concerned. It includes 2 key metrics: a count of new nonfarm payroll (NFP) creation as well as an update on the unemployment rate. Both are important, but the unemployment rate has recently taken precedence over NFP. If unemployment comes in lower than expected, rates would likely face upward pressure, potentially challenging the upper boundary of the recent range. On the other hand, a weaker/higher result should keep rates well within the range, perhaps near the lower boundary. [thirtyyearmortgagerates]

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is responsible for the two most important economic reports to the bond market: The Employment Situation (aka jobs report or NFP) and The Consumer Price Index (CPI). This week marks the return of more timely installments of these reports with NFP on Tuesday (still not 100% timely, but only a week and a half late) and CPI on Thursday.  In addition, we’ll get October’s retail sales data at the same time as NFP. This combo of data could easily set the tone through the 2nd week of January, for better or worse.
If the data sends a unified message that’s economically stronger (higher jobs, higher inflation), an unfriendly range breakout becomes likely. In the opposite scenario (weaker jobs, lower inflation), yields would be more likely to simply retreat into the range.  To some extent, these reports may be taken with a grain of salt because they’re the first new collections of these data sets post-shutdown.

After home equity surged in 2023, average gains slowed last year before falling into negative territory over the past 12 months, Cotality said.