Big Rally After More Forceful Peace Deal Announcement

This morning’s commentary noted Trump comments regarding planned air strikes for today. Bonds reacted, but maintained some skepticism. That proved to be a good instinct. At roughly 1:30pm, Trump said the air strikes were cancelled and that all parties had agreed on a deal, and that a time/place for signing would be announced shortly. There wasn’t as much push back against those claims by foreign sources as we’ve often seen in response to similar claims of deals being reached. Stocks surged. Oil plummeted. 10yr yields dropped another 8bps for a total of more than 10 on the day. Almost every lender repriced by a healthy amount. Now we wait for whammies or no whammies. 

Econ Data / Events

Continued Claims (May)/30

1,795K vs 1780K f’cast, 1777K prev

Core PPI m/m (May)

0.4% vs 0.5% f’cast, 1% prev

Core PPI y/y (May)

4.9% vs 5.4% f’cast, 5.2% prev

Jobless Claims (Jun)/06

229K vs 219K f’cast, 225K prev

PPI m/m (May)

1.1% vs 0.7% f’cast, 1.4% prev

PPI y/y (May)

6.5% vs 6.4% f’cast, 6% prev

Market Movement Recap

08:45 AM Initially weaker after PPI and war headlines, but finding some footing. MBS up an eighth and 10yr down 2.8bps at 4.527

01:03 PM MBS up 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr down 1.7bps at 4.537.  Weakest levels since this morning

01:51 PM MBS up half a point and 10yr down 8.2bps at 4.472

03:24 PM MBS up 5/8ths. 10yr down 10.2bps at 4.453