Data-Driven Sell-Off Dominates The Day. No Jobs Report on Friday

Very little changed after this morning’s commentary. At the time, we were watching bonds sell-off somewhat sharply in response to an exceptionally strong ISM Manufacturing report. As is often the case with data-driven selling sprees, the worst was over in the first 10 minutes and the rest of the day was broadly sideways. That said, it wasn’t without its interesting updates. Chief among them was news that this Friday’s jobs report would be postponed due to the government shutdown (and same story with tomorrow’s JOLTS data). 

Econ Data / Events

ISM Manufacturing Employment (Jan)

48.1 vs — f’cast, 44.9 prev

ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)

52.6 vs 48.5 f’cast, 47.9 prev

ISM Mfg Prices Paid (Jan)

59.0 vs 60.5 f’cast, 58.5 prev

Market Movement Recap

08:41 AM roughly unchanged after bonds give up overnight gains in early trading. MBS down 2 ticks (.06) and 10yr up half a bp at 4.24

12:02 PM much weaker after ISM, but flat after initial reaction. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr up 3.9bps at 3.828

03:28 PM Treading water near weakest levels. MBS down 6 ticks (.19) and 10yr yr up 4.2bps at 3.831